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Calm Before The Storm? Bitcoin Volatility At Historically Low Levels

October 7, 2022
in Bitcoin
Calm Before The Storm? Bitcoin Volatility At Historically Low Levels

Data reveals the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has plunged down lately to fairly low values. Here’s what has traditionally occurred following situations of such a development.

Bitcoin 7-Day Volatility Has Declined To Just 1.6% In The Past Week

According to the newest weekly report from Arcane Research, the current sideways development within the BTC worth has result in the volatility dropping all the way down to very low values.

The “volatility” is an indicator that measures how the each day returns of Bitcoin have deviated from the typical throughout a selected interval.

Here is a chart that reveals the development within the 7-day and 30-day variations of the metric for BTC during the last yr:

The 7-day worth of the indicator appears to have gone down in current days | Source: Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update – Week 39, 2022

As you possibly can see within the above graph, the 7-day Bitcoin volatility has plummeted down over the previous week or so.

The metric’s worth is now only one.6%, a really low stage that has solely been seen just a few instances over the past twelve months. The 30-day volatility, although, has nonetheless stayed up lately at about 3.4%.

The cause behind such low weekly values of the indicator is the sideways consolidation between the $19k and $20k ranges that the crypto’s worth has been caught in recently.

Such low 7-day volatility values have normally been succeeded by important surges within the metric, as famous by the report.

This occurs as a result of leverage simply builds up throughout these durations. High leverage markets are extremely unstable since any sudden worth strikes can liquidate giant quantities, which additional amplifies the value change.

Since low volatility durations clearly don’t have any important worth spikes, leverage can go unflushed and thus pile up.

As the Bitcoin 7-day volatility has been very low lately, this sort of buildup is once more anticipated to happen out there. And certainly, the BTC-denominated perpetual futures open curiosity has shot up and is sitting at an all-time excessive proper now, supporting the concept of the market being overleveraged:

Bitcoin Open Interest

Looks like the worth of the metric has been climbing up lately | Source: Arcane Research’s The Weekly Update – Week 39, 2022

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s worth floats round $20.1k, up 3% within the final week. Over the previous month, the crypto has gained 1% in worth.

The under chart reveals the development within the worth of the coin during the last 5 days.

Bitcoin Price Chart

The worth of the crypto has been shifting sideways because the surge a few days again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured picture from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research

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