The Bitcoin worth has at present stabilized strongly across the $17,000 mark. However, the value may face additional headwinds within the coming days, because the VIX exposes.
The VIX is a real-time volatility index from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). It was created to quantify market expectations of volatility.
In doing so, the VIX is forward-looking, which means that it solely exhibits the implied volatility of the S&P 500 (SPX) for the following 30 days.
Basically, if the VIX worth goes up, the S&P 500 will probably go down, and if the VIX worth goes down, the S&P 500 will probably stay steady or go up.
This is precisely what was seen yesterday. The VIX bounced as much as 19, a stage that was final seen in mid-August. As a outcome, the S&P 500 misplaced the weekly help space at 4040 and fell 1.8%. In August, the final time the VIX was this low, it rebounded, and the S&P 500 fell 15%.
VIX,1D chart Source: TradingView
The Importance Of The VIX For Bitcoin
Besides the VIX and the S&P 500, it is very important perceive that Bitcoin, with larger beta, is extremely correlated with the S&P 500. This signifies that the Bitcoin worth is extra delicate to modifications out there in each instructions.
As predicted by the VIX, BTC bounced off the $17,400 horizontal resistance yesterday and dropped beneath $17,000.
In October, when the VIX was down, and the S&P 500 was up, Bitcoin skilled a black swan occasion with the FTX collapse, after which BTC fell to $15,500. Thus, the Bitcoin worth didn’t benefit from the momentum of the VIX.
At the second, a attainable reversal of the VIX at 19 may function a sort of sentiment barometer for the S&P 500 and Bitcoin for the following few weeks. The VIX is being in comparison with the 2006-2009 crash, a nasty outlook that may imply a lot decrease costs.
Analyst Sam Rule writes that the latest BTC rally following shares is going on at a time when the VIX is depressed to a stage of 20. Although there was a large business leverage wipe-out within the crypto business, the inventory market has but to expertise such an occasion.
Given Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500, this might imply one other worth drop, as Rule writes:
Is 25% drawdown from ATH all we’re getting in S&P 500 this cycle through the popping of the good every thing bubble? Would you count on #BTC to backside right here if SPX state of affairs fell >40% from ATH in coming months?
SPX drawdowns from ATH 1-week, Source: Twitter
Why VIX Has Limited Applicability To BTC
However, the VIX shouldn’t be used as the only deterministic indicator of future market route. Why?
The VIX depends on expectations set by previous occasions moderately than what’s going to occur sooner or later. Investors are notoriously liable to irrational exuberance.
In addition, the VIX can’t account for sudden, surprising occasions that may trigger robust market reactions. However, these occasions are key to figuring out a change in market route, corresponding to a bear market backside.
Therefore, Bitcoin traders must also control different elements, such because the upcoming determination by the U.S. Federal Reserve on additional rate of interest coverage, additional contagion results within the crypto market, and different intrinsic elements, corresponding to miner capitulation.
